“Most of the punditry continues to assume that the die is cast — that Republicans will win control of the House this fall. Certainly that outcome is entirely possible. But there is a Democratic path to victory next Tuesday.
Fivethirtyeight.com currently portends that there are 152 solid Democratic seats, 174 solid Republican seats, 29 seats that are leaning Democratic, 42 seats that are leaning Republican and 42 toss-ups. Fivethirtyeight.com’s Nate Silver gives Democrats only 17% odds of winning 218 votes.
MSNBC and HuffPost’s Pollster.com give Democrats only a 21% chance to maintain control of the House. They rate 193 seats as Democratic, 212 Republican and 30 as toss-ups.
If you believe these and other handicappers, Democrats face long odds on Tuesday. But let’s remember that even if your odds of success are one in five — they are not zero in five. People line up to play casino games with worse odds every day. Some walk away winners.
But to beat the odds and win, Democrats must be successful at four key tasks over the next five…”